after oil

I am very happy to say that the citizens of the Detroit area seems to be fairly active in this project, if the WWO regional rating system is any indication. It doesn't strike me as too surprising, considering that Southeast Michigan has always been very closely tuned in to factors concerning the automotive industry; when thousands of people get laid off overnight, one tends to take notice.

The question that brings up in my mind is: what region of the country will best respond to this crisis? Who will mount the worst response? A number of factors are in play here: how directly the crisis will impact local economies, psychological mindsets regarding the environment and the nation, specific geographic details (does an area have access of water transport? does an area use a lot of oil to cool or warm its inhabitants?) are just some of the factors impacting a region's response. What will end up making the biggest impact? Will it be the rural/urban divide? A red state/blue state thing?

I would be very interested to hear people's thoughts regarding the various regional reactions that we will see at this thing plays out.

I couldn't design an area worse suited for this type of crisis. Consider the following about the Detroit metropolitan area:

* Almost zero public transportation. In a city built for ease of travel (gridded street layout, strong arterial base) there are very few buses and no rail system (well, they have something called The People Mover downtown, but it is more like a Disney ride than a real solution). The city has sprawled uncontrollably in the last 30 years, and almost 100% of the people who work downtown commute in from many miles away.

* Economy almost completely centered around The Big Three. Any jostle to Ford of GM and thousands of jobs are cut the next day. Keep in mind that these employees have grown up with the understanding that a high school degree and a union card are enough to guarantee them a nice career and lifetime benefits. When you have no college degree and have been attaching the same seat belt for 15 years and you find yourself out of work, you are not exactly in a good spot to jump back into the workforce (particularly in this economic climate).

* Staggering poverty rates. Detroit is among the most impoverished large cities in the country, and has one of the highest crime rates to match. The "white flight" of the 70's and 80's has sucked essentially all of the money from the downtown area and moved it to outlying suburbs.

* A history of violence and riots. In 1943 the Detroit Race Riots shook the city, and in 1967 the 12th Street Riot far surpassed it as one of the most destructive and deadly riots in our nation's history.

People have known that the American auto industry was in real trouble for some time, but this shock could be what sparks not only fear but deadly reaction. I just hope that people are able to manage this tinderbox before it is too late.

just before the crisis hits, this is an interesting (and helpful) look at where things stand:

http://www.fuelcostcalculator.com/TripGasprice.aspx

I know it is a little odd to try and predict the appropriate level of fear regarding an event which we know very little about, but it isn't without merit. I have been thinking about this thing like it were going to be cataclysmic, but is that really justified? To what level will our society truly degrade facing something like a spike (even a very dramatic one) in oil prices? Are we being a little rash here?

I'm not saying that we shouldn't be worried, but I do think that we should evaluate our current level of fear and see if it is justified considering what we are (and aren't) up against.

I think back to the weeks before the dreaded Y2K bug was set to bring our society to its knees. People frantically hoarding water and stashing gold in their basements, gun sales up sharply, constant warnings on the news. And when it finally came time to face those missing digits in the eye, with anarchy scratching on our door... nothing. Essentially zero impact.

At some point panic often passes reality in the contest of danger.

cissmiace's


*** edit: I just read cissmiace's posting on emergency medical responders (http://cissmiace.livejournal.com/2007/04/27/) and it has me pretty shook. Maybe things will be as bad as we fear they will be.

After my last post I started thinking more and more about the psychological damage that is a major component of any societal disruption or disaster. Last night I talked with someone who is a leading expert in psychological trauma relief. She has worked with victims of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, the Indian Ocean Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, traumatized soldiers returning from Afghanistan and Iraq and other such events. She currently teaches trauma relief at the Center for Justice and Peacebuilding.

I asked her about what people could do to mentally prepare for upcoming disruption or trauma, specifically regarding a "hypothetical" situation like the one we are looking at. She pointed out that just because all our houses weren't necessarily going to fall over didn't mean that people wouldn't be under serious stress and trauma. The types of sacrifices we would have to make in this sort of situation and the stresses involved in the societal shift would certainly have widespread and serious emotional and psychological impact.

Her advice was to take some time now to inventory the things that can "ground" us. She spoke of people that may comfort us, but also things like a special item that has important personal significance. The sensory-memory link can be particularly important, so things like a special scented candle or a certain song might be invaluable. She said that by taking time to place aside just a couple of important items we could be rewarded with a powerful grounding tool when we find ourselves under serious duress. I imagine people hunkering down while things readjust to a post-oil world, and the great importance of having that special photograph or teddy bear or whatever to remind them of the better things in the world.

She also spoke of the resiliency building exercises that she does with people who will be going into high-stress situations (first responders and soldiers primarily). Simple things like breathing exercises or muscle flexing/relaxation techniques can really go a long way when you are faced with tremendously stressful situations.

I find it helpful to feel like I can prepare myself in more ways than food/water/fire. When we are relying on a small group of people to get through o hell of a storm, I shudder to think of what a mental breakdown could do to the situation.

Hello. It is a little hard to come up with a first entry when we are facing something so big, but I guess you have to start somewhere. I am really glad to see how much energy is going into all of this, and I am really excited to see the ideas that other people are coming up with. It is going to take a lot of good ideas to come out of this thing okay.